Civilisations that Collapsed

Evidence for the 3.2 ka BP event at the end of the bronze age

The 3.2 ka BP event induced a rapid drop in rainfall over parts of the eastern Mediterranean for a period of up to three hundred years from about 1200 BC causing a megadrought in some regions. This event, now often linked with the collapse of the bronze age civilisations in the Middle East, is also known as the 3.2 ka event, the 3.2k yr BP event and, by the pedantic as the 3.2 cal ka BP event.

By Nick Nutter | Last Updated 2024-08-16 | Civilisations that Collapsed

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Semi arid zone - Tabernas in Almeria

The Physical Evidence for Drought

Palynology studies conducted in 2010 by a team led by David Kaniewski in northern Syria consisted of taking core samples from alluvial deposits and examining the pollen species found within the core. They found that, in the core levels equating to the late 13th, early 12th centuries BC to the ninth century BC, the plant life changed to species able to cope with drier climatic conditions.

In 2012, a similar study was carried out by a team led by Christopher Bernhardt in the Burullus Lagoon, in the Nile delta. This study indicated an aridity event about 1000 BC. Bernhardt hypothesised that this was caused by a lack of rainfall over the Ethiopian plateaux, leading to less water in the River Nile.

In 2012, Brandon Drake at the University of New Mexico, put together data from a variety of sources for an article that was published in the Journal of Archaeological Science. Israeli scientists studying growth rings in stalagmites and stalactites (speleothems) in Soreq Cave in northern Israel found evidence of low annual precipitation during the transition from the bronze age to the iron age.

Other data indicated that the sea surface temperature in the Mediterranean dropped between 1250 and 1197 BC. A drop in sea temperature causes a decrease in precipitation by reducing the temperature differential between land and sea.

He also pointed out that there was a sharp increase in Northern Hemisphere temperatures in 1225 BC, just before the collapse of the Mycenaean palaces that may have caused droughts, followed by a cooler regime during the period the centres were actually being abandoned. This coincided with the drop in Mediterranean Sea temperatures before 1190 BC altogether resulting in cooler, more arid conditions.

In 2013, Kaniewski and his team performed a study of pollen taken from the Larnaca Salt Lake complex in Cyprus. They concluded that, between 1200 and 850 BC, the area turned into a drier landscape and that the precipitation and groundwater probably became insufficient to maintain sustainable agriculture.

In the same year, Israel Finkelstein and Dafna Langutt noted that, pollen samples from a core drilled through sediments in the Sea of Galilee, also indicate that a period of severe drought started about 1250 BC in the southern Levant. A second core from the western shores of the Dead Sea provided comparable results. Both these cores indicate the drought in this area was over by 1100 BC when vegetation returned to normal.

Kaniewski and his team were back in action off the coast of Haifa in Israel looking at pollen in seabed cores. They found evidence to suggest that, not only had there been a drought in the area, starting about 1200 BC, there had also been a change in sea level. The results of this study, published in 2014, reported that there had been a dramatic reduction in woodland, forests being replaced by thorny shrub-steppe and then by open steppe. Trees did not reappear until after 850 BC.

In 2015, Mark Macklin at the University of Lincoln, and his colleagues, published a study of the river dynamics of the Nile valley covering a period of thousands of years. They concluded that there was a pronounced drought between 1100 BC and 900 BC or thereabouts.

Annually from 2016 to 2019, Neil Roberts from the University of Plymouth and his colleagues, published records collected from various lakes in Anatolia, including information gleaned from stable isotopes and carbonate geochemistry. They concluded that, in the Anatolia region, there had been an arid period starting about 1200 BC and continuing for decades if not centuries.

Attacking the problem from another direction, Finkelstein and his ‘Exact Life Sciences’ team looked at the DNA of cattle that were present in the bronze age Levant and that of grain grown in the area from the late 13th to the 12th century BC. They found that, anticipating harder conditions, the Egyptians had increased grain production and started breeding hardier cattle, crossing the domestic humped cattle or zebu, Bos indicus, with Bos taurus, ordinary domesticated cattle, producing species more able of thriving in drier conditions.

In 2017, Martin Finne and colleagues reported on high resolution oxygen and carbon isotope data retrieved from a stalagmite in Greece. The data indicated a brief period of drier conditions around 1200 BC and gradually developing aridity after 1150 BC. Further supporting data was produced the following year that confirmed a drying trend starting about 1200 BC that lasted two hundred years. The stalagmite stopped growing entirely about 1000 BC, indicating very dry conditions at that time.

Climate reconstructions relying on indirect evidence, such as pollen or cave formations (speleothems), often provide a broad overview rather than precise details. These reconstructions typically represent average conditions spanning decades or centuries. Instead of directly recording climate, they are derived from statistical analyses of available data. This methodological approach hinders definitive links between climate and historical events and complicates comparisons across different time periods.

More detailed information about the climate at a specific time and place can be obtained from the study of ancient tree rings, dendrochronology. A study, published in Nature in February 2023, provides data, based on the tree ring growth of 3000-year-old juniper wood excavated from a royal tomb in Türkiye. According to the study, researchers found “unusually” low growth in the juniper wood, suggesting the region was hit by a prolonged and severe drought, especially between the years of 1198 B.C. and 1196 B.C.

A Note of Caution

The climate has been changing since the world came into existence. It will continue to change long after we humans are gone. Humans as a species, using different stratagems, have survived many changes in climate over the last 600,000 years or so.

Since the bronze age there have been other times when climate change apparently coincided with major changes in civilisation.

Kyle Harper argues that Rome reached the peak of its prosperity and extent during the Roman Climate Optimum (200 BC–150 AD), followed by a Late Roman Transitional Period (150–450 AD) and the Late Antique Little Ice Age (450–700 AD), arguing that the latter was a catalyst in the collapse. Some researchers claim that climate change was the reason the Indus Valley civilisation, the Akkadian Empire, the Old Kingdom of Egypt, and the Maya civilisations collapsed.

Recent evaluations of research on human-climate interactions have revealed several shortcomings. Jacobsen and colleagues highlight key issues with these studies, including overreliance on correlations without establishing clear causal links, a tendency to focus on periods of crisis rather than long-term patterns, and a lack of detailed comparisons across diverse regions.

Jacobsen et al. caution that climate reconstructions derived from proxies such as pollen or cave formations often lack precision and represent long-term averages rather than specific climate conditions. These reconstructions are inherently statistical interpretations, making it challenging to link them directly to historical events or compare across different time periods. Additionally, they overlook significant climate fluctuations within broader climate trends. The authors further argue that the assumption of a direct correlation between warmer temperatures, increased water availability, and higher agricultural yields is overly simplistic.

Consequently, when investigating the causes of historical collapses, researchers should exercise prudence in interpreting environmental data and consider non-climatic factors before drawing definitive conclusions.

A review in the Nature publication noted that “populations survived—and often thrived—in the face of climatic pressures,” citing numerous cases where society adapted to make the best use of a changing climate and concluding that, “the overwhelming focus in HCS [History of Climate and Society] on crisis and collapse misrepresents the character of historical interactions between humanity and climate change.”

Written Evidence of Drought

Between 1279 and 1213 BC, a Hittite queen called Puduhepa, wrote to the Egyptian pharaoh, Ramesses II stating; ‘I have no grains in my lands’. A trade embassy was sent to Egypt to procure barley and wheat. Following the 1259 BC treaty between Ramses II and the King Hattusili III, grain was imported from Egypt into Anatolia on a regular basis. The Hittite Kingdom was no longer self-sustainable in food production and had to rely on imports.

Between 1213 and 1203 BC, Pharaoh Merneptah states that he had; ‘caused grain to be taken in ships, to keep alive this land of Hatti’, the first evidence in the world of what we would call today, famine relief.

In a letter sent to the king of Ugarit (on the Syrian coast) from the king of the Hittites sometime during the 13th century BC, the Hittite king enquires after a shipment of two thousand units of grain (up to 450 tons) being sent from Ugarit to Hattusi. He ends his letter rather dramatically, ‘It is a matter of life or death.’

Just before its destruction in 1185 BC, a letter from Emar in Syria was sent to Ugarit. In it the writer says: ‘There is famine in our house, we will all die of hunger. If you do not quickly arrive here, we ourselves will die of hunger. You will not see a living soul from your land.

Even in Ugarit there was famine. Pharaoh Merneptah wrote a reply to a letter from the king of Ugarit; ‘So you had written to me…, in the land of Ugarit there is severe hunger. May my lord save the land of Ugarit and may the king give grain to save my life and to save the citizens of the land of Ugarit.’

Towards the end of the city’s life, an unnamed king of Ugarit wrote to a senior correspondent; ‘…with me, plenty has become famine’. Whilst in a letter from an Ugarit official to the king; ‘Another thing my lord, grain staples from you are not to be had. The people of the household of your servant will die of hunger. Give grain staples to your servant.’

“If there is any goodness in your heart, then send even the remainders of the [grain] staples I requested and thus save me,” pleads a Hittite official. Food shortages were becoming dire. “In the land of Ugarit there is a severe hunger. May my Lord save it, and may the king give grain to save my life…and to save the citizens of the land of Ugarit,” wrote Ugarit’s king Ammurapi (ca. 1215–1190 BC) to the Egyptian pharaoh Seti II, who ruled from about 1200 to 1194 BC.

On at least one occasion, famine relief in the form of a grain ship from Egypt was caught in a storm off the port of Tyre in the Lebanon. The king of Tyre wrote to the king of Ugarit; Your ship that you sent to Egypt died in a mighty storm close to Tyre. It was recovered and the salvage master took all the grain from the jars. But I have taken all their grain, all their people (crew), and all their belongings from the salvage master and have returned it all to them. And now your ship is being taken care of in Akko, stripped.’ The king of Tyre waited for instructions as to what to do with the ship and contents. This letter also illustrates the extraordinary cooperation that existed between the empires and city states.

A letter sent from the Ugarit merchant Rapanu says: ‘The gates of the house are sealed. Since there is famine in your house, we will starve to death. If you do not hasten to come we will starve to death. A living soul of your country you will no longer see.’

The situation was exacerbated by demands from Hatti, itself now probably in the grip of famine, for grain consignments from the Syrian states—highly likely to compensate for the loss of grain shipments from Egypt due to the activities of enemy naval forces in the eastern Mediterranean.

A particular note of urgency was sounded in a letter sent from the Hittite court to the Ugaritic king, either Niqmaddu III or Ammurapi (his name is not preserved in the text), demanding a ship and crew for the transport of 2,000 kor of grain (circa 450 tonnes) from Mukish to Ura: ‘And so (the city) Ura (acted(?)) in such a way…and they have saved the food for His Majesty. His Majesty has shown them 2000 kor of grain coming from Mukish. You must furnish them with a large ship and a crew, and they must transport this grain to their country. They will carry it in one or two shipments. You must not detain their ship!

It is known that food was rationed in the last years of Ramesses III’s reign (1184 to 1155 BC) because that year (probably 1870 BC) saw the world’s first recorded labour strike. At that time, it is recorded that the food rations were insufficient to feed Egypt's favoured and elite royal tomb-builders and artisans in the village of Deir

What Can We Learn

Climate change leading to reduced production of food can cause stress within a society, of that there is no doubt. As we are seeing during the beginning of the 21st century AD, whilst the climate is becoming generally warmer, it is the sudden, often violent, and unseasonal weather events that cause the most distress whilst nature adjusts itself to a new climate regime. Violent storms and flooding, high tides, heavy rain at the ‘wrong’ time, dry periods when there should be rainfall, unseasonal high or low temperatures, and high winds make it difficult for farmers to reliably grow and harvest crops, thereby reducing the capabilities of a country to feed its own population or in some cases, produce a surplus to feed other nations.

As in the past, whilst a change in climate can have a deleterious effect in one region, it can bring decided advantages in another. At no time during the late bronze age was drought a problem throughout the entire region.

Mechanisms were in place to move grain from one region to another, particularly from Egypt to Ugarit and thence Hattusa. Egypt was, at that time, the bread basket of the Middle East, even during the periods when the Nile flood was not sufficient to irrigate all the growing land.

We know from other letters more concerned with trade and reciprocal exchanges than famine relief, that grain and other food stuffs were a regular part of the shipments between all the nations of the Middle East.

References

Cline, Eric. 1177 B.C.: The Year Civilization Collapsed. Princeton: Princeton University Press, 2021.
Degroot et al. “Towards a rigorous understanding of societal responses to climate change.” Nature, vol. 591 (25 March 2021): 539–550.
Drake, Brandon. (2012). The influence of climatic change on the Late Bronze Age Collapse and the Greek Dark Ages. Journal of Archaeological Science. 39. 1862–1870. 10.1016/j.jas.2012.01.029.
Fairchild et al. “Modification and preservation of environmental signals in speleothems.” Earth Science Reviews, vol. 75: 105–153
Harper, Kyle. The Fate of Rome: Climate, Disease, and the End of an Empire. Princeton: Princeton University Press, 2017.
Izdebski et al. “The environmental, archaeological and historical evidence for regional climatic changes and their societal impacts in the Eastern Mediterranean in Late Antiquity.” Quaternary Science Reviews, vol. 136 (2016): 189–208
Jacobsen, Matthew, Jordan Pickett, Alison Gascoigne, Dominik Fleitmann, and Hugh Elton. “Settlement, environment, and climate change in SW Anatolia: Dynamics of regional variation and the end of Antiquity.” PLoS One, June 27 2022
Kaniewski et al. “Late second-early first millennium BC abrupt climate changes in coastal Syria and their possible significance for the history of the Eastern Mediterranean.” Quaternary Research, vol. 74 (2010): 207–215
Langutt, Dafna, Israel Finkelstein, and Thomas Litt. “Climate and the Late Bronze Collapse.” Tel Aviv, vol. 40 (2013): 149–175