The UK's Hidden Role in Venezuelan Instability

This cautious language stands in stark contrast to his reaction to the invasion of Ukraine, which he quickly termed a “war of aggression”. Former ambassador Sir Richard Dalton has described the current government stance as “cynical”, accusing it of failing to oppose “the law of the jungle”.

It was during this session that Hunt surprised aides by “suddenly saying that we will consider recognising Guaidó”. According to Duncan, Hunt believed “we need to use Venezuela as an issue on which we can be as fully in line with the US as possible, because [Hunt] is out of line on a number of issues such as Syria”. Duncan described this as “one of those trade-off moments which we need if we are to handle the Trump administration cleverly”. Hunt reportedly justified the focus on Latin America by noting: “Venezuela is in their back yard, and it’s probably the only foreign adventure they might just pursue”.

The UK formally recognised him shortly after, a move that Vanessa Neumann, Guaidó’s UK representative, linked to territorial concessions. She was recorded explaining that the “number one issue identified by the Foreign and Commonwealth Office is that they won’t support us while we continue with the official line, that we want to take back the Essequibo from Guyana”. She consequently instructed her colleagues to “drop the topic” in exchange for British support.

Duncan’s diaries detail how he provided Bank of England Governor Mark Carney with the necessary justification: “I tell Carney that I fully appreciate that, although it’s a decision for the Bank, he needs a measure of political air cover from us. I tell him I will write him the most robust letter I can get through the FCO lawyers, and it will outline the growing doubts over Maduro’s legitimacy and explain that many countries no longer consider him to be the country’s President”.

The UK government also invested heavily in the legal battle that ensued when Maduro sued for the gold’s release. The Foreign Office spent £80,697 of public funds specifically to promote Guaidó’s legal campaign in British courts. Furthermore, Guaidó’s own legal team incurred substantial costs; published accounts “suggesting Guaidó’s team spent over $8.5m on legal fees – roughly £7m”. Remarkably, these fees were “paid with money which was originally appropriated from the Venezuelan state in the US”, meaning American-seized assets were used to fund litigation in London.

Additionally, the Foreign Office “funded” an “anti-corruption” coalition in Venezuela to the tune of £450,000, drawing from the controversial Conflict, Stability and Security Fund. This occurred despite UN special rapporteur Alena Douhan having “noted” the negative humanitarian impact of the “repeated refusals of banks in the… United Kingdom… to release Venezuelan assets even for buying medicine, vaccines and protective kits”.

Internal communications suggest the sensitivity of these operations. Following journalistic exposures, embassy staff complained that “Articles on our programmes/operations here are particularly sensitive”. To this day, the Foreign Office refuses to fully disclose details, arguing that releasing information “would be likely to prejudice relations between the United Kingdom and [an]other state.”

In December 2022, the Venezuelan opposition coalition (the Unitary Platform) turned on him. They argued that the "interim government" strategy had failed to dislodge Maduro and was only useful for managing foreign assets (like Citgo).

By a vote of 72 to 29, the opposition National Assembly voted to dissolve the interim government and remove Guaidó as its leader. They replaced him with a ceremonial leadership council (Dinorah Figuera) operating mostly from Spain, effectively ending the "dual presidency."

Guaidó Flees to the US (April 2023)
Stripped of his legal status and diplomatic immunity, Guaidó became vulnerable to arrest by Maduro’s security forces.

In April 2023, claiming he had received credible threats of imprisonment, Guaidó crossed the border into Colombia on foot. However, leftist Colombian President Gustavo Petro (who had restored ties with Maduro) refused to host him.

Guaidó was effectively pushed out to the United States. Since then, he has lived in Miami, lobbying Washington for continued sanctions but largely sidelined from the daily political struggle inside Venezuela.

How Maduro Regained Control
While Guaidó’s star faded, Maduro used a "survival strategy" to solidify his grip.

To stop the hyperinflation that was destroying his support, Maduro quietly allowed the US dollar to circulate. This stabilised the economy slightly and allowed a "bubble" of luxury consumption in Caracas, placating the business elite and military officers he needed to keep loyal.

Maduro successfully fractured the opposition by banning popular candidates (like María Corina Machado) from running in elections, forcing the opposition to constantly fight over who should replace them.

By 2023/2024, many countries (including neighbours like Brazil and Colombia, and eventually the EU) quietly dropped their recognition of the "interim government" and resumed diplomatic ties with Maduro, accepting the reality that he was the de facto ruler, regardless of legitimacy.

By the time of the US operation in January 2026, Juan Guaidó had been living in exile in Miami for nearly three years, having been ousted not by Maduro, but by his own opposition coalition.

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